COMMON COUNTRY ANALYSIS (CCA) REPORT 2022

Macro- and- micro–Economic Environment

❖ Available data shows that there is an increase in extreme poverty and overall poverty rate exacerbated by the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. The CCA Update reveals that economy is not providing the required levels of economic growth, although endowed with natural capital.

❖ Health, education, gender, energy, climate, and economy, which are integral to human development, continue to face headwinds.

❖ A sense of unfulfilled expectations of peace dividends (owing in large measure due to COVID-19) will dominate the political landscape moving into the next electoral cycle.

Implications Of these Changes to the UNCT Programming

❖ These changes render the development landscape more complex with a need for a combination of short-term quick impact actions while also laying long-term foundations for sustaining progress on SDG1.

❖ Need for UN programming that shifts the narrative of: ▪ high food expenditure; high out-of-pocket health expenditure; reversals in primary education completion rates; high energy costs; binding constraints against women within the socio-economic and political landscape, poor connectivity to the different counties and one of the sharpest declines in minimum real wages (2010-2019)

▪ there is a need for UN programming that shifts the poorly diversified and high commodity dependency economic model into a sustainable, gender responsive economic model. Implications to UNSDCF

❖ CF that has ability to meet the complex demands of mounting SDG1 challenge within a context of extremely limited government’s fiscal space.

❖ CF that has ability to leverage comparative advantages of the country; addresses the binding constraints of SDG2, SDG3, SDG4, SDG5, SDG7, SDG9, SDG13, SDG17 to change the SDG1, SDG8, SDG16 narrative.

❖ HDI analysis reveals GNI Per Capita (2017 PPP USD) is witnessing regression even prior to COVID19. The annual real GDP growth rate has slowed, and this calls for a recalibrated, gender inclusive and sustainable economic model (SDG8) to facilitate growth.

Development/Country’s Context

1. The recalibration and mid-term review of the Pro-Poor Agenda for Prosperity and Development (PAPD) was done with a focus on economic recovery and strengthening resilience to health risks . As part of the recalibration process, the government revised high-level national targets and identified priorities within the revised national targets. One of the priorities is annual GDP growth. Considering the impact of COVID-19, the revised national target is to increase annual GDP growth to 2 percent. UNDP’s Human Development Index analysis reveals GNI Per Capita (2017 PPP USD) is witnessing regression even prior to COVID-19 .Data from 2010-2019 reveals that country witnessed one of the sharpest declines in real minimum wages in Africa region. Foreign Direct Investment which formed integral part of the growth narrative in the post conflict period, has been coming down significantly and the employment generation from the concessions driven economic model is not commensurate with the expectations. A combination of these trends calls for a matching recalibration of the economic model towards a more gender inclusive (SDG5) and sustainable (SDG13) economic model that can support prioritization of the government. Developing consensus on such a recalibration of economic model can be a critical contribution towards 2030.

2. 2023 elections are scheduled to take place in the context of many shifting narratives. The 2017 elections truly represent a milestone towards deepening political stability. Embedded within this landmark milestone is also heavy expectations of the citizens towards peace dividends. The 2019 outbreak of COVID-19 was a major disruptor to the effective implementation and translation of plans into credible outcomes for the poorest of the poor, especially increase in extreme poverty will dominate the electoral landscape. Complementing the existing UN peacebuilding engagements, strengthening national prevention capacities with a focus on infrastructures for peace that facilitate continuous internal dialogue amongst the different political stakeholders with a specific eye on the 2023 electoral events will be vital for progress towards 2030. CCA Consultations with the Honorable Minister also confirmed the economic recovery focus with resilience to health risks.  SDG1 patterns are shaped by factors that can be classified as impacting at household level as well as at economy. SDG2, SDG3, SDG4, SDG5, SDG7, SDG8 have important binding constraints at household level that contribute to overall SDG1 trends. Similarly, SDG8, SDG13, SDG16, SDG17 have important economy wide constraints that contribute to SDG1 trends, as shown below. Addressing these key constraints will be vital for progress towards the 2030 Agenda. 

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